Gas and Diesel Keep Rising as Conflicts Pile Up, But A Pause in Hostilities Offers Hope

The nation’s average price of gasoline has risen 10.8 cents over the last week and stands at $4.06 per gallon, according to GasBuddy® data compiled from more than 12 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average is up 23.9 cents from a month ago and is 95.6 cents per gallon higher than a year ago. The national average price of diesel rose 17.8 cents in the last week and stands at $5.255 per gallon.

“Average gasoline and diesel prices rose in nearly every state over the last week, as continued escalations between the U.S. and Iran, renewed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, and fresh Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries combined to keep upward pressure on both crude and refined product markets,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “However, a weekend pullback in hostilities offered some relief, with oil prices opening sharply lower Sunday, suggesting the pace of increases at the pump may moderate in the days ahead. For now, motorists should expect prices to remain elevated, but the intensity of further gains will depend heavily on how the geopolitical situation develops in the coming week.”

OIL MARKET DYNAMICS

Oil prices tumbled sharply to start the week after the U.S. and Iran effectively paused their latest round of military exchanges, with Washington holding fire over the weekend following 13 consecutive days of strikes and Trump’s UN envoy signaling the president was “giving talks some space.” Tehran in turn said it would halt retaliatory strikes on regional neighbors, and Iran’s foreign ministry confirmed ongoing talks with Oman on establishing safe passage mechanisms through the Strait of Hormuz—though shipping traffic through the waterway remained in the single digits over the weekend, well below the roughly 100 daily transits that were typical before the war. In early Monday trade, WTI was down $5.42 to $83.89 per barrel, giving back much of last week’s gains from the $82.14 level, while Brent fell $6.36 to $90.42, compared to $88.27 a week ago—a reminder of just how violently this market continues to swing on every diplomatic signal, with Brent having briefly topped $102 last week before this morning’s reversal.

“Oil prices continue to react sensitively to tensions in the Middle East. While prices have fallen back to levels near last Monday’s, they rose to their highest level since early June in the second half of last week, following renewed military strikes between the U.S. and Iran. The absence of strikes over the weekend saw prices give up all of last week’s gains. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed, and military strikes between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in Yemen are an additional concern that needs to be monitored,” said Giovanni Staunovo, UBS commodities analyst, via e-mail.

OIL AND REFINED PRODUCT SUPPLIES

The EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending July 17, 2026, showed U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose by 2.0 million barrels and are about 6% below the five-year average for this time of year, while the SPR fell 5.1 million barrels to 311.4 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by 0.8 million barrels and are about 7% below the five-year seasonal average, while distillate inventories rose by 1.4 million barrels and are about 10% below the five-year seasonal average. Refinery utilization fell 0.1 percentage points to 96.1%, while implied gasoline demand, the EIA’s proxy for retail demand, rose 103,000 bpd to 8.947 million barrels per day.

GAS PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists was $3.89 per gallon, down 10 cents from a week ago, followed by $3.99, $3.79, $3.69, and $4.19, rounding out the top five most common prices.

The median U.S. gas price is $3.91 per gallon, up 5 cents from last week and about 15 cents lower than the national average.

The top 10% of stations in the country average $5.30 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $3.49 per gallon.

The states with the lowest average prices: Indiana ($3.49), Mississippi ($3.65), and Texas ($3.67).

The states with the highest average prices: California ($5.61), Hawaii ($5.41), and Washington ($5.06).

Biggest weekly changes: Delaware (+18.6¢), Maryland (+15.7¢), Georgia (+15.4¢), Indiana (+15.4¢), Minnesota (+14.5¢).

DIESEL PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $4.99 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $4.89, $4.79, $4.69, and $4.59, rounding out the top five most common prices.

The median U.S. diesel price is $5.19 per gallon, up 20 cents from last week and about 7 cents lower than the national average.

Diesel prices at the top 10% of stations in the country average $5.86 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $4.66 per gallon.

The states with the lowest average diesel prices: Oklahoma ($4.76), Kansas ($4.83), and Missouri ($4.84).

The states with the highest average diesel prices: California ($6.85), Hawaii ($6.96), and Washington ($6.07).

Biggest weekly changes: Idaho (+35.6¢), Montana (+30.6¢), North Carolina (+29.6¢), Nebraska (+29.4¢), Arkansas (+28.9¢).