GAS PRICE DECLINE REACHES 9TH STRAIGHT WEEK, END MAY BE IN SIGHT

For the ninth consecutive week, the nation’s average gas price has fallen, declining 9.9 cents from a week ago to $3.92 per gallon today, according to GasBuddy data compiled from more than 11 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 stations nationwide. The national average is down 63.7 cents from a month ago but 74.8 cents higher than a year ago. The national average price of diesel has fallen 11.0 cents in the last week and stands at $5.03 per gallon.

“For the ninth week straight, gas prices have continued to fall, but the streak is at great risk of being broken this week with wholesale gasoline prices having bounced back up some 40 cents per gallon as oil prices have rebounded,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “That means the decline in average prices could wrap up soon, with some price increases possible as early as this week, especially in areas of the Great Lakes. While the West Coast and some areas of the Rockies may see prices continue to drift lower, I do believe the national average could tick higher this week as the better than expected jobs report last week likely means less demand destruction than anticipated.”

OIL PRICES

Heavy selling pressure hit oil markets early Monday as China economic data reported Sunday showed concerns over demand, as credit growth slowed amidst fresh Covid-19 flare-ups. A deepening property crisis was also causing jitters of a broader economic slowdown there, pushing oil prices down in early trade. West Texas Intermediate crude was last down $4.43 per barrel or 4.8%, to $87.66, roughly on par with last week’s open. Brent crude was down $4.64 per barrel or 4.7%, to $93.50, just above last Monday’s start. Also on the tip of the tongue was Iran’s possible deal, which it was planning to inform the EU of Monday night, which could see its oil exports ramp up in case of a broader nuclear deal, also pushing oil lower.

According to Baker Hughes, last week’s U.S. rig count was down by 1 rig to 763, and was 262 rigs higher than a year ago. The Canadian rig count was down 2 rigs to 201, but was 37 rigs higher than a year ago.

OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS

U.S. oil inventories saw a notable jump last week, climbing 5.5 million barrels, which are now slightly above last year, while the SPR fell 5.3 million barrels and is 25% lower than a year ago. Domestic oil production jumped 100,000 barrels to 12.2 million barrels, the highest since the pandemic hit in 2020. Gasoline inventories fell 5.0 million barrels and are now down 7 million barrels from their year ago level, while distillate inventories jumped 2.2 million barrels, but are down 21% from a year ago. Implied gasoline demand, a proxy for retail consumption, jumped 582,000bpd to 9.12 million barrels per day, while refinery utilization rose 3.3 percentage points. Total supply was down 45.6 million barrels from a year ago (3.6%), but including the SPR, are down nearly 11% from last year.

FUEL DEMAND

According to GasBuddy demand data driven by its Pay with GasBuddy card, U.S. retail gasoline demand saw a slight decline last week (Sun-Sat), falling 1.6%. Broken down by PADD region, demand fell 1.1% in PADD 1, fell 1.2% in PADD 2, fell 3.6% in PADD 3, fell 1.7% in PADD 4 and fell 2.2% in PADD 5.

GAS PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $3.59 per gallon, down 10 cents from last week, followed by $3.49, $3.69, $3.99 and $3.79 rounding out the top five most common prices.

The median U.S. gas price is $3.77 per gallon, down 10 cents from last week and about 12 cents lower than the national average.

The top 10% of stations in the country average $5.23 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $3.23 per gallon.

The states with the lowest average prices: Texas ($3.42), Oklahoma ($3.43) and Arkansas ($3.44).

The states with the highest average prices: Hawaii ($5.31), California ($5.31) and Nevada ($4.92).