Surge Status: Has the National Average Hit $4? What's Next for Pump Prices

The nation’s average price of gasoline has risen 2.4 cents over the last week and stands at $3.95 per gallon, according to GasBuddy® data compiled from more than 12 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average is up 97.9 cents from a month ago and is 83.8 cents per gallon higher than a year ago. The national average price of diesel rose 14.3 cents in the last week and stands at $5.369 per gallon, the highest level since July 27, 2022.

“Gasoline and diesel prices continue to climb to multi-year highs as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz curtails the flow of millions of barrels of crude oil each day,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “The situation remains highly volatile and unpredictable, but upward pressure on fuel prices is likely to persist as long as global oil supplies are constrained by the continued disruption in the Strait. We’re likely to see the national average for gasoline push beyond the $4-per-gallon mark, while diesel could approach $6 per gallon and potentially set new records if conditions fail to improve. Americans have already spent nearly $8 billion more on gasoline over the past month, a trend that poses growing risks to the broader economy, while surging diesel prices may begin to reaccelerate inflation.”

OIL MARKET DYNAMICS

Oil prices moved sharply higher over the past week, reversing earlier losses as geopolitical tensions re-escalated and risk premiums were rebuilt into the market. After starting last week under pressure — following news that the U.S. would pause potential strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure — crude initially fell as traders priced in a possible de-escalation and reduced risk to global supply.

However, that weakness proved short-lived. As uncertainty surrounding the talks persisted and concerns grew over the durability of any pause, markets quickly shifted back toward a more risk-sensitive footing. Ongoing anxiety surrounding the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of global oil flows — helped drive a renewed surge in prices, with traders increasingly skeptical that tensions would ease in a meaningful or lasting way.

By early Monday trading, oil had pushed decisively higher. WTI crude oil was up $1.66 per barrel to $101.30, a significant jump from last Monday’s $92.60 level, while Brent crude rose $2.42 to $114.99 per barrel — well above last week’s $105.61 level. The rebound underscores how quickly geopolitical developments can shift sentiment and inject volatility into energy markets.

“The conflict in the Middle East continues to influence oil markets. For now, tensions are not de-escalating and flows through the Strait remain restricted, keeping pressure on crude prices to the upside,” added Giovanni Staunovo, UBS commodities analyst, via e-mail.

OIL AND REFINED PRODUCT SUPPLIES

The EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending March 20, 2026, showed U.S. oil inventories rose by 6.9 million barrels and are about 0.1% above the seasonal average for this time of year, while the SPR was unchanged at 415.4 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels and are about 3% above the five-year seasonal average, while distillate inventories rose by 3.0 million barrels and are about 0.4% below the five-year seasonal average. Refinery utilization rose 1.5 percentage points to 92.9%, while implied gasoline demand, the EIA’s proxy for retail demand, rose 196,000 bpd to 8.924 million barrels per day.

GAS PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $3.99 per gallon, up 30 cents from a week ago, followed by $3.89, $3.79, $3.69, and $3.59, rounding out the top five most common prices.

The median U.S. gas price is $3.79 per gallon, unchanged from last week and about 16 cents lower than the national average.

The top 10% of stations in the country average $5.65 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $3.23 per gallon.

The states with the lowest average prices: Oklahoma ($3.21), Kansas ($3.25), and Nebraska ($3.27).

The states with the highest average prices: California ($5.82), Hawaii ($5.41), and Washington ($5.27).

Biggest weekly changes: Hawaii (+18.8¢), Utah (+16.3¢), Nebraska (-9.2¢), Montana (+9.0¢), Georgia (-8.6¢).

DIESEL PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $4.99 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $4.79, $4.89, $4.69, and $4.59, rounding out the top five most common prices.

The median U.S. diesel price is $5.25 per gallon, up 26 cents from last week and about 12 cents lower than the national average.

Diesel prices at the top 10% of stations in the country average $6.30 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $4.51 per gallon.

The states with the lowest average diesel prices: Oklahoma ($4.49), Kansas ($4.51), and North Dakota ($4.59).

The states with the highest average diesel prices: California ($7.30), Hawaii ($6.67), and Washington ($6.50).

Biggest weekly changes: Delaware (+52.4¢), Nevada (+50.3¢), California (+40.5¢), Arizona (+38.8¢), Maryland (+38.6¢).