GAS PRICES FALL AGAIN, WHILE NORTHEAST JUMPS AND WEST COAST PULLS DOWN NATIONAL AVERAGE

For the third straight week, the nation’s average gas price has declined, falling 4.7 cents from a week ago to $3.72 per gallon today according to GasBuddy data compiled from more than 11 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average is down 3.0 cents from a month ago and 34.4 cents per gallon higher than a year ago. The national average price of diesel has fallen 2.4 cents in the last week and stands at $5.28 per gallon.

“For the third consecutive week, we’ve seen the national average price of gasoline decline, and while it’s good news for most regions with a continued drop in prices, the Northeast is bucking the trend and seeing a noticeable jump due to tight supply,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “The national average is closing in on the previous low from September, which was interrupted when refinery issues caused prices to skyrocket in the West and Great Lakes. With those issues addressed, the West has seen prices plummet, including a nearly 90 cent per gallon decline in California in less than a month. Compare that to the Northeast, where prices have jumped some 10-25 cents per gallon, demonstrating there’s much regionality to current gasoline price trends. Add in diesel prices that remain high amidst extremely tight supply, and there are definitely some challenges that lie ahead.”

OIL PRICES

Continuing the recent trend, oil prices remained range-bound Monday morning, coming off last week’s rally. In early Monday trade, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was down $1.46 per barrel to $86.44, but still some $3 higher than last Monday, when crude was trading at $83.07 to start the week. Brent crude oil was also in the red, down $1.21 to $94.56 per barrel in early trade, also close to $3 per barrel higher than its week-ago level. While oil has seen a recent rally, it has failed to surpass the $93 per barrel level seen shortly after OPEC’s recent decision to cut production. On the bottom side, oil has failed to breach the $80 per barrel level as of late, holding between $83-$89 per barrel, while the refined products see more attention, with diesel and gasoline seeing a rally as of late as product inventories remain tight.

According to Baker Hughes, last week’s U.S. rig count was down by 3 rigs to 768 and was 224 rigs higher than a year ago. The Canadian rig count was up 2 rigs to 212 and was 46 rigs higher than a year ago.

OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS

Last week’s report from the Energy Information Administration showed a slight rise in crude oil inventories, which were up 2.6 million barrels, while the SPR fell 3.4 million barrels and is now close to 35% lower than its year-ago level. Domestic oil production remained stuck at 12 million barrels, still 700,000 barrels higher than a year ago, but making little meaningful recovery over the last few months. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels and are 6% lower than the five-year average range, while distillate inventories saw just a 200,000 per barrel gain, remaining about 20% below the five-year average range. Implied gasoline demand was pegged at 8.93 million barrels per day, 253,000bpd higher than the previous week. Refinery utilization continues to drift lower, falling 0.6 percentage points to 88.9% of capacity. Gasoline production rose to 9.4 million barrels per day while distillate production fell to 5.0 million barrels per day. Overall petroleum inventories are down 8.5 million barrels from last year, but including the SPR are down nearly 221 million barrels from a year ago.

FUEL DEMAND

According to GasBuddy demand data driven by its Pay with GasBuddy card, U.S. retail gasoline demand fell last week (Sun-Sat) by 2.5%. Broken down by PADD region, demand fell 2.8% in PADD 1, fell 3.0% in PADD 2, fell 2.6% in PADD 3, fell 2.1% in PADD 4, and fell 0.8% in PADD 5.

GAS PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $3.69 per gallon, up 20 cents versus last week, followed by $3.29, $3.59, $3.49, and $3.99 rounding out the top five most common prices.

The median U.S. gas price is $3.57 per gallon, up 3 cents from last week and about 15 cents lower than the national average.

The top 10% of stations in the country average $5.34 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $3.01 per gallon.

The states with the lowest average prices: Georgia ($3.11), Texas ($3.13), and Mississippi ($3.21).

The states with the highest average prices: California ($5.47), Hawaii ($5.16), and Nevada ($4.95).