Gas Prices Fall Ahead of July 4 Holiday as Middle East Tensions Cool

For the first time in three weeks, the nation’s average price of gasoline has decreased, falling 3.8 cents compared to a week ago and stands at $3.14 per gallon, according to GasBuddy® data compiled from more than 12 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average is up 1.1 cents from a month ago and is 32.1 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. The national average price of diesel has increased 2.7 cents in the last week and stands at $3.676 per gallon.

“The national average price of gasoline has resumed its decline, with falling prices driven by easing tensions in the Middle East—just weeks after those same tensions had pushed prices higher,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “For motorists planning to hit the road for Independence Day, gas prices are expected to continue falling nearly coast to coast in the lead-up to July 4. Relief could expand as the holiday weekend approaches, with the national average on track to hit its lowest July 4 level since 2021 at $3.15 per gallon, we project. As long as tensions in the Middle East remain contained and the U.S. avoids a major hurricane, we could see the national average fall below $3 per gallon later this summer.”

OIL PRICES

With continued improvement in Middle East tensions, WTI and Brent oil prices continued to plunge from their previous highs, but markets remain on edge with more trade talk from the Trump administration. In early Monday trade, WTI was down 8 cents to $65.44 per barrel, a significant drop from last Monday’s $73.78 per barrel start. Brent was down 3 cents in early trade to $67.74 per barrel, down from $76.86 per barrel a week ago. With the attention shifting to President Trump’s trade policies, oil prices could again become more volatile, with Trump recently saying he was ending all trade talks with Canada over Canada’s digital services tax, which Canada promptly paused from coming into effect over the weekend, sending stock markets higher Monday morning.

“Crude prices gave up all their recent gains last week, driven by a de-escalation in tensions in the Middle East, together with no supply disruptions. In just two days, oil prices fell by over $10/bbl. Furthermore, oil producers rushed to lock in these higher prices. Securing higher prices with hedges might prevent a drop in US crude production over the next few quarters, although US shale companies will likely retain a cautious approach with respect to investment and drilling activity. For now, market-related indicators continue to suggest the physical market remains tight,” said Giovanni Staunovo, UBS Commodities Analyst, in an e-mail.

OIL AND REFINED PRODUCT SUPPLIES

The EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending June 20, 2025, showed U.S. oil inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels, and are about 11% below the seasonal average for this time of year, while the SPR rose 200,000 barrels to 402.5 million. Gasoline inventories fell by 2.1 million barrels and stand 3% below the five-year seasonal average, while distillate inventories fell 4.1 million barrels and are about 20% below the five-year seasonal average. Refinery utilization rose 1.5 percentage points to 94.7%, while implied gasoline demand, EIA’s proxy for retail demand, rose 389,000 bpd to 9.688 million barrels per day.

GAS PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $2.99 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $2.89, $2.79, $3.09, and $3.19, rounding out the top five most common prices.

The median U.S. gas price is $2.99 per gallon, down 6 cents from last week and about 15 cents lower than the national average.

The top 10% of stations in the country average $4.37 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.58 per gallon.

The states with the lowest average prices: Oklahoma ($2.67), Mississippi ($2.68), and Texas ($2.72).

The states with the highest average prices: California ($4.53), Washington ($4.39), and Hawaii ($4.39).

Biggest weekly changes: Ohio (-15.7¢), Indiana (+15.1¢), Texas (+12.4¢), New Hampshire (+12.1¢), Tennessee (+11.7¢)

DIESEL PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $3.69 per gallon, up 10 cents from last week, followed by $3.59, $3.49, $3.39, and $3.79, rounding out the top five most common prices.

The median U.S. diesel price is $3.59 per gallon, up 1 cent from last week and about 9 cents lower than the national average.

Diesel prices at the top 10% of stations in the country average $4.61 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $3.05 per gallon.

The states with the lowest average diesel prices: Texas ($3.20), Mississippi ($3.26), and Louisiana ($3.27).

The states with the highest average diesel prices: Hawaii ($5.25), California ($5.09), and Washington ($4.91).

Biggest weekly changes: Delaware (+13.5¢), Florida (+12.5¢), Maryland (+10.6¢), Idaho (+10.5¢), Michigan (+8.5¢)