GAS PRICES REVERSE AS OIL FALLS, POSSIBLY HAVING REACHED SHORT-TERM PEAK
Gasoline demand inches up to 8.70mbpd
For the first time in the last four weeks, the nation’s average price of gasoline has decreased, falling 0.8 cents from a week ago to $3.64 per gallon yesterday according to GasBuddy data compiled from more than 11 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average is up 22.8 cents from a month ago but 46.4 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. The national average price of diesel has fallen 3.0 cents in the last week and stands at $4.12 per gallon, 95.0 cents lower than one year ago.
“For the first time in several weeks, the national average price of gasoline has seen a decline, and while the fall was quite small, the bigger news may be that we may have seen a short-term peak for the price of gasoline. While any unexpected outages could push it up again, there is a rising possibility that barring such, we may have seen our high water mark for the national average for the summer,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “Typically, gas prices peak between May and June, and with the oil market showing significant cracks in strength, we may have seen the peak in the national average already occur, a few weeks earlier than average. While it’s possible we could go higher later this summer should a major hurricane target sensitive infrastructure, it appears the odds that the national average will miss the $4 per gallon mark are rising. It’s certainly looking optimistic for motorists.”
OIL PRICES
The price of crude oil has continued to come under selling pressure as the global outlook remains cloudy, with continued prospects of a global slowdown in demand, but OPEC+ production cuts also on the other side of the equation. In early Monday trade, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was down 15 cents to $77.72 per barrel, down some $5 per barrel from last Monday’s $81.99 per barrel start. Brent crude oil was tracking alongside WTI, down 20 cents to $81.46 per barrel, just over $4 per barrel lower than last Monday’s $85.82 per barrel start. With the Chinese economy also only slowly seeing a rise in demand, the future of oil demand remains uncertain.
OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS
Last week’s report from the Energy Information Administration showed a 4.6 million barrel decline in oil inventories as production remained unchanged at 12.3 million barrels per day. The SPR saw a drop of 1.6 million barrels due to Congress authorizing current releases back in 2015. Gasoline inventories rose a modest 1.3 million barrels, which could be a starting trend as refiners get back online and begin boosting supplies of summer gasoline. Distillate inventories fell 400,000 barrels but remain about 3% above year ago levels. Implied gasoline demand, a proxy for retail consumption, fell 416,000bpd to 8.52 million barrels per day, while refinery utilization rose 1.7 percentage points to 91.0%, a sign that refiners are in the home stretch of maintenance season.
FUEL DEMAND
According to GasBuddy demand data driven by its Pay with GasBuddy fuel card, U.S. retail gasoline demand saw a rise of 1.0% last week (Sun-Sat). Broken down by PADD region, demand rose 0.5% in PADD 1, rose 1.5% in PADD 2, rose 2.3% in PADD 3, rose 0.2% in PADD 4, and fell 0.3% in PADD 5.
GAS PRICE TRENDS
The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $3.49 per gallon, down 10 cents from last week, followed by $3.39, $3.59, $3.29, and $3.69 rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. gas price is $3.51 per gallon, down 2 cents from last week and about 13 cents lower than the national average.
The top 10% of stations in the country average $4.81 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $3.11 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average prices: Mississippi ($3.11), Louisiana ($3.22), and Arkansas ($3.22).
The states with the highest average prices: California ($4.84), Hawaii ($4.76), and Arizona ($4.70).
DIESEL PRICE TRENDS
The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $3.99 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $3.89, $4.09, $4.19, and $3.79 rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. diesel price is $3.99 per gallon, unchanged from last week and about 13 cents lower than the national average for diesel.
Diesel prices at the top 10% of stations in the country average $5.12 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $3.44 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average diesel prices: Texas ($3.59), Louisiana ($3.77), and Mississippi ($3.80).
The states with the highest average diesel prices: Hawaii ($5.81), California ($5.20), and Washington ($4.95)
