GAS PRICES SEE LONGEST DROP IN OVER A YEAR AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING

For the ninth consecutive week, the nation’s average price of gasoline has declined, falling 6.2 cents from a week ago to $3.27 per gallon yesterday according to GasBuddy data compiled from more than 12 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average is down 25.9 cents from a month ago and 36.9 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. The national average price of diesel has fallen 6.9 cents in the last week and stands at $4.28 per gallon—$1.02 lower than one year ago.

“As millions of Americans gear up to hit the road for Thanksgiving, the national average is seeing its longest streak of declines in over a year, reaching a ninth straight week as gas prices fall to their lowest since January,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “GasBuddy now counts over 65,000 stations with a price of $2.99 per gallon or lower, while 11 states are seeing average prices below $3. In addition, we could see five more states join the sub-$3 club by Thanksgiving. The fall in gas prices, largely seasonal due to weakening gasoline demand, could extend for another week or two, leading to potentially the lowest gas prices since 2021 by Christmas.”

OIL PRICES

Oil prices fell for their fourth straight week last week but closed out the week with a strong rally that’s continuing into the new week. In early Monday trade, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil is up $1.71 per barrel to $77.60, a slight rise from last Monday’s $77.12 per barrel start. Brent crude oil was also in the black, up $1.76 per barrel to $82.37, up from $81.42 per barrel. Amidst the slump in oil prices last week, Saudi Arabia hinted it may extend its 1-million-barrel-per-day production cut into 2024 as oil prices have slid into the $70s. OPEC+ will have its annual meeting on November 26 and Saudi policy will likely have a major impact on short-term oil prices. Since reaching $95 in late September, oil prices have faltered on concerns of growing weakness in China’s economy causing long-term demand to drop there, while the U.S. sees falling gasoline consumption heading into the cooler months. With refinery maintenance season wrapping up, products may have a harder time finding a home, leading the market to selling pressure.

OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS

Last week’s report from the Energy Information Administration showed a large two-week rise in crude oil inventories, which are now about 1% above last year’s level but 2% below the five-year average for this time of year. Domestic crude oil production remained at 13.2 million barrels, while gasoline inventories slipped 1.5 million barrels, but remain slightly above average for this time of year. Distillate inventories fell 1.4 million barrels and stand 0.7% lower than last year and 13% below the five-year average range. Implied gasoline demand, a proxy for retail consumption, fell 544,000bpd to 8.95 million, with the EIA showing a monster 9.4 million barrel number the week prior when no report was issued due to a system upgrade. That number was likely vastly overstated as GasBuddy data showed a conflicting drop in demand. However, the methodology differences between EIA’s report and GasBuddy data must be understood as the EIA dataset shows movements of gasoline towards the pump, while GasBuddy data shows retail dispensed volumes.

FUEL DEMAND

According to GasBuddy demand data driven by its Pay with GasBuddy™ fuel card, U.S. retail gasoline demand saw a rise of 1.1% for the week ending November 18 (Sun-Sat). Broken down by PADD region, demand rose 1.4% in PADD 1, rose 2.1% in PADD 2, fell 1.4% in PADD 3, rose 0.2% in PADD 4, and fell 0.9% in PADD 5. GasBuddy models U.S. gasoline demand at 8.52 million barrels per day.

GAS PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $2.99 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $3.09, $3.19, $2.89, and $3.29 rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. gas price is $3.09 per gallon, down 10 cents from last week and about 18 cents lower than the national average.
The top 10% of stations in the country average $4.74 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.63 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average prices: Mississippi ($2.75), Texas ($2.77), and Oklahoma ($2.79).
The states with the highest average prices: California ($4.93), Hawaii ($4.67), and Washington ($4.37).

DIESEL PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $3.99 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $4.29, $4.19, $4.39, and $4.09 rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. diesel price is $4.18 per gallon, down 6 cents from last week and about 10 cents lower than the national average for diesel.
Diesel prices at the top 10% of stations in the country average $5.44 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $3.57 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average diesel prices: Texas ($3.70), Mississippi ($3.82), and Louisiana ($3.83).
The states with the highest average diesel prices: California ($5.89), Hawaii ($5.71), and Washington ($5.21).