National Average Dips Close to $3, But Tariffs Likely to Boost Gas Prices Soon

The nation’s average price of gasoline has returned to a decline, falling 3.5 cents compared to a week ago, and stands at $3.04 per gallon, according to GasBuddy® data compiled from more than 12 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average is down 1.4 cents from a month ago and is 10.3 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. The national average price of diesel has decreased 2.4 cents in the last week and stands at $3.626 per gallon.

“The national average has seen little meaningful change over the past week, as oil markets continue to face selling pressure. However, with President Trump imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico, some motorists may see gas prices inch up in certain regions,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “Trump’s new trade war has already triggered retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, escalating tensions. While, on paper, tariffs on Canadian energy could have a significant impact on fuel prices, a prolonged trade war could weaken global economies, reducing demand and partially offsetting the effects of tariffs. For now, I expect a slow but modest impact on fuel prices, particularly in the Great Lakes, Midwest, Rockies, and Northeast U.S. — all markets that rely heavily on Canadian crude oil or refined product imports from Canada.”

OIL PRICES

After declining for much of the last week, oil prices began Monday by jumping, in response to President Trump’s tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, raising concerns over supply disruptions and an escalating trade war. In early Monday trade, WTI crude was up $2.09 per barrel to $74.62, up from last Monday’s $74.06 per barrel start. Brent crude oil was also jumping in early Monday trade, rising $1.46 per barrel to $77.13, but still down from last Monday’s $77.93 per barrel start. It’s likely to be a volatile week for oil prices after Trump enacted significant tariffs, with Canada suggesting that it’s preparing to escalate and coordinate additional tariffs of its own.

OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS

Last week’s report from the Energy Information Administration showed a 3.5 million barrel rise in U.S. crude oil inventories, while gasoline inventories jumped another 3.0 million barrels and distillate inventories plummeted 5.0 million barrels as cold weather heating boosted demand significantly. Refinery utilization sank to 83.5% of capacity last week, while domestic oil production fell 237,000bpd, primarily due to cold weather-related slowdowns in the South. U.S. domestic production stood at 13.24 million barrels per day, while implied gasoline demand, EIA’s proxy for retail demand, rose 216,000bpd to 8.302 million.

GAS PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $2.99 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $2.89, $2.79, $3.09, and $3.19 rounding out the top five most common prices.

The median U.S. gas price is $2.94 per gallon, down 5 cents from last week and about 10 cents lower than the national average.

The top 10% of stations in the country average $4.19 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.54 per gallon.

The states with the lowest average prices: Oklahoma ($2.63), Mississippi ($2.64), Texas ($2.66).

The states with the highest average prices: Hawaii ($4.50), California ($4.39), and Washington ($3.88).

Biggest weekly changes: Florida (-14.6¢), Ohio (-12.6¢), South Carolina (-10.5¢), Arizona (+10.2¢), Maryland (-9.2¢)

DIESEL PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $3.69 per gallon, up 10 cents from last week, followed by $3.59, $3.39, $3.49, and $3.29, rounding out the top five most common prices.

The median U.S. diesel price is $3.50 per gallon, down 9 cents from last week and about 13 cents lower than the national average.

Diesel prices at the top 10% of stations in the country average $4.41 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $3.10 per gallon.

The states with the lowest average diesel prices: Oklahoma ($3.13), Arkansas ($3.28), and Mississippi ($3.29).

The states with the highest average diesel prices: Hawaii ($5.32), California ($4.93), and Washington ($4.32).

Biggest weekly changes: Texas (-8.9¢), Utah (+8.3¢), Idaho (+7.5¢), South Carolina (-6.4¢), North Carolina (-5.7¢).