NATIONAL AVERAGE GAS PRICE FOLLOWS RISING OIL PRICES

The nation’s average price of gasoline has seen a weekly gain, rising 4.5 cents from a week ago to $3.07 per gallon yesterday according to GasBuddy data compiled from more than 12 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average is down 4.1 cents from a month ago and 41.2 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. The national average price of diesel has fallen 0.5 cents in the last week and stands at $3.87 per gallon—79 cents lower than one year ago.

“We’ve seen the national average price of gasoline bounce back up after cold-weather-related refinery shutdowns pushed up the wholesale price of gasoline. Plus, recent GDP data and new attacks in the Red Sea have pushed oil prices to their highest level since November,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “While prices have inched up and may continue to slowly rise, I believe the larger increases will be witnessed in a few weeks as we enter mid-February, lasting through April or May, during which the national average could rise 35 to 85 cents per gallon. Other issues and tensions could complicate how quickly prices rise or how high they go, so while the rise is not completely charted, it could deviate from our expectations.”

OIL PRICES

Against a backdrop of new attacks in the Middle East, and a U.S. promise to respond, oil prices were seen dipping slightly in early Monday trade, with WTI crude oil down 39 cents to $77.62 per barrel, nearly $4 higher than a week ago. Brent crude oil was also trading slightly lower, down 38 cents to $83.17 per barrel, a nearly $5 gain from a week ago. Market participants continue to digest many conflicting data points, including a solid GDP figure issued last week, against a backdrop of continued high-visibility layoffs, geopolitical developments, and the prospect of a slowing economy and interest rate cuts. On the flip side, oil demand has remained quite weak thus far this year, with cold weather shutting down production several weeks ago— production which is now coming back online. Refinery output has plunged as a result, but gasoline inventories continue to see large builds.

OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS

Last week’s report from the Energy Information Administration showed a large 9.2-million-barrel decline in crude oil inventories, due to weather shutting down over a million barrels of crude oil output per day. The SPR rose 900,000 barrels to 356.5 million barrels, while domestic crude production fell some million barrels to 12.3 million per day. Gasoline inventories jumped 4.9 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell 1.4 million barrels. Implied gasoline demand plunged to 7.88 million barrels per day, with refinery utilization plunging 7.1 percentage points, also due to weather-related shutdowns.

FUEL DEMAND

According to GasBuddy demand data driven by its Pay with GasBuddy™ fuel card, U.S. retail gasoline demand saw an increase of 2.7% for the week ending January 28 (Sun-Sat), as temperatures moderated, and demand bounced back. Broken down by PADD region, demand rose 0.0% in PADD 1, rose 2.4% in PADD 2, rose 10.4% in PADD 3, rose 2.5% in PADD 4, and rose 1.6% in PADD 5. GasBuddy models U.S. gasoline demand at 7.78 million barrels per day.

GAS PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $2.99 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $2.89, $2.79, $3.09, and $3.19 rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. gas price is $2.96 per gallon, up 3 cents from last week and about 11 cents lower than the national average.
The top 10% of stations in the country average $4.28 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.54 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average prices: Utah ($2.61), Wyoming ($2.63), Oklahoma ($2.64).
The states with the highest average prices: Hawaii ($4.65), California ($4.45), and Washington ($3.88).

DIESEL PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $3.99 per gallon, up 10 cents from last week, followed by $3.89, $3.69, $3.79, and $3.59 rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. diesel price is $3.79 per gallon, unchanged from last week and about 8 cents lower than the national average for diesel.
Diesel prices at the top 10% of stations in the country average $4.98 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $3.24 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average diesel prices: Oklahoma ($3.38), Colorado ($3.42), and Texas ($3.45).
The states with the highest average diesel prices: Hawaii ($5.59), California ($5.24), and Washington ($4.68).