NATIONAL AVERAGE HOLDS STEADY BUT SOME STATES SEE BIG MOVES

After falling slightly last week, the nation’s average price of gasoline is unchanged from a week ago, holding at $3.54 per gallon, according to GasBuddy data compiled from more than 11 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average has been stuck between $3.50 and $3.60 every day since April 23. The national average price of diesel has fallen 2 cents in the last week and stands at $3.84 per gallon.

“It’s been another generally sideways week for the national average, which has remained stuck in the $3.50-$3.60 per gallon range since late April with fundamentals generally holding pretty stable, even though oil prices have bounced around between $65-$80 in the same timeframe,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “While some states saw big increases from last week, I expect those states to see a calmer week ahead. Other states saw prices fall, and some like Arizona fell significantly as some of the kinks in supply have improved there over the last few weeks. Ultimately, we could see the national average nudge a bit lower in the week ahead, should oil prices fail to rally. But, with developments including the Wagner group destabilizing and testing Russia, there can always be last-minute shifts that impact prices, which we continue to watch for and hope the market remains calm.”

OIL PRICES

After the weekend’s mutiny in Russia, oil markets were cautiously watching for further developments, worried over Russia’s oil production, which is one of the key drivers of the Russian economy and a potentially attractive target. In early Monday trade, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was up 33 cents to $69.49 per barrel, less than $2 lower than last Tuesday’s $71.12 per barrel level. Brent crude oil was also seeing slight gains, rising 43 cents to $74.28 per barrel, but also down over $1 from its $76.07 per-barrel level last Tuesday. While there are some broad concerns about the outlook for Russia moving forward, with Turkey and Switzerland raising interest rates last week, the market has fresh reminders of how oil demand will struggle as central banks raise rates to cool spending.

OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS

Last week’s report from the Energy Information Administration showed a 3.8 million barrel drop in U.S. oil inventories, but they remain 45 million barrels above last year, excluding the SPR. Meanwhile, the SPR fell another 1.7 million barrels and is likely getting close to concluding the Congressionally mandated sales from the 2015 budget agreement. Gasoline inventories picked up a half million barrels and stand up 1.1% from a year ago but remain 7% below the five-year average. Distillate inventories picked up 400,000 barrels, and are up 4% from a year ago, but remain 14% below the five-year average. Implied gasoline demand, a proxy for retail demand, rose 182,000 bpd last week to 9.38 million barrels, a strong number, but still noticeably lower than 2019. Refinery utilization fell 0.6 percentage points to 93.1%.

FUEL DEMAND

According to GasBuddy demand data driven by its Pay with GasBuddy™ fuel card, U.S. retail gasoline demand saw a 0.3% drop last week (Sun-Sat). Broken down by PADD region, demand fell 2.9% in PADD 1, rose 2.1% in PADD 2, fell 0.9% in PADD 3, fell 1.3% in PADD 4, and fell 0.2% in PADD 5.

GAS PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $3.29 per gallon, down 20 cents from last week, followed by $3.39, $3.19, $3.49, and $3.09 rounding out the top five most common prices.

The median U.S. gas price is $3.39 per gallon, unchanged from last week and about 15 cents lower than the national average.

The top 10% of stations in the country average $4.78 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.99 per gallon.

The states with the lowest average prices: Mississippi ($2.97), Louisiana ($3.08), and Tennessee ($3.09).
The states with the highest average prices: Washington ($4.92), California ($4.79), and Hawaii ($4.70).

DIESEL PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $3.69 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $3.59, $3.79, $3.99, and $3.49 rounding out the top five most common prices.

The median U.S. diesel price is $3.69 per gallon, down 6 cents from last week and about 15 cents lower than the national average for diesel.

Diesel prices at the top 10% of stations in the country average $4.87 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $3.23 per gallon.

The states with the lowest average diesel prices: Texas ($3.37), Louisiana ($3.41), and Oklahoma ($3.45).
The states with the highest average diesel prices: Hawaii ($5.67), California ($4.95), and Washington ($4.91).