NATIONAL AVERAGE INCHES UP AGAIN, GASOLINE SUPPLY AT LOWEST JULY LEVEL SINCE 2015

The nation’s average price of gasoline has risen 2.1 cents in the last week to $3.55 per gallon, according to GasBuddy data compiled from more than 11 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average price of diesel has risen 2.7 cents in the last week and stands at $3.83 per gallon.

“For the second straight week, we saw another small rise in the national average, which has been stuck in the same 10-cent range we’re in today since April. It’s been a remarkably quiet summer for gas prices, which have been far less active than normal,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “However, with tremendous heat gripping much of the country, I remain concerned about the fuel that such high temperatures will provide for tropical systems that venture into the Atlantic and Caribbean. For now, I don’t expect much change in the toss-up that has been gas prices for weeks on end. But, with gasoline demand now hitting its summer high, there remain some risks that could disturb gas prices in a significant way before summer’s end.”

OIL PRICES

The rally in oil prices has been sustained into a fourth straight week, with refined products joining in with oil to show impressive strength, with the last week seeing a sharper upside than previous weeks. In early Monday trade, a barrel of WTI crude was up 92 cents to $77.99 per barrel, an over $3 gain from last Monday’s $74.46 per barrel start. Similarly, Brent crude was also rallying in early Monday trade, up 80 cents to $81.87 per barrel, up from last Monday’s $78.96 per barrel fetch. While oil prices have risen, U.S. crude oil exports have fallen to their lowest four-week average since mid-winter, at some 3.8 million barrels per day. Speculators continue to add to their positions, giving legs to the recent run in oil prices. According to CFTC data, long positions saw a skew to shorts at the highest gap in months, lending credibility to the rally being strong enough to be sustained beyond the short term.  With Saudi Arabia continuing to tighten production, and with U.S. SPR releases behind us, there could be a continued tightness in markets, pushing oil prices even higher, perhaps past $80/bbl.

OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS

Last week’s report from the Energy Information Administration showed incremental shifts in inventories, with oil inventories falling 700,000 barrels, while the SPR held unchanged, signaling that releases may have completely wrapped up, with builds coming in August as the government starts to replenish the reserve. Gasoline inventories fell by a manageable 1.1 million barrels as implied gasoline demand bounced up to 8.86 million barrels, in line with GasBuddy’s 8.82 calculation based on its Pay with GasBuddy™ transactional gas card. Distillate inventories were basically unchanged, holding at a level 5.1% higher than last year, with refinery utilization helping to boost output. Utilization rates rose 0.6% to 94.3%, even as gasoline and distillate output slipped slightly.

FUEL DEMAND

According to GasBuddy demand data driven by its Pay with GasBuddy™ fuel card, U.S. retail gasoline demand saw a 0.6% rise last week (Sun-Sat) as demand pushed higher into late July, typically when summer demand peaks. Weekly demand rose for another week but will likely begin to soften soon. Broken down by PADD region, demand fell 0.9% in PADD 1, rose 1.8% in PADD 2, rose 0.4% in PADD 3, fell 2.1% in PADD 4, and rose 0.6% in PADD 5.

GAS PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $3.29 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $3.49, $3.19, $3.39, and $3.09 rounding out the top five most common prices.

The median U.S. gas price is $3.39 per gallon, unchanged from last week and about 16 cents lower than the national average.

The top 10% of stations in the country average $4.79 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.92 per gallon.

The states with the lowest average prices: Mississippi ($3.05), Tennessee ($3.16), and Louisiana ($3.18).

The states with the highest average prices: Washington ($4.86), California ($4.84), and Hawaii ($4.65).

DIESEL PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $3.69 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $3.79, $3.59, $3.49, and $3.99 rounding out the top five most common prices.

The median U.S. diesel price is $3.69 per gallon, unchanged from last week and about 14 cents lower than the national average for diesel.

Diesel prices at the top 10% of stations in the country average $4.90 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $3.30 per gallon.

The states with the lowest average diesel prices: Texas ($3.43), Mississippi ($3.49), and Oklahoma ($3.52).

The states with the highest average diesel prices: Hawaii ($5.64), California ($5.07), and Washington ($4.87).