NATIONAL AVERAGE INCHES UP, BUT $2.99 AVERAGE REMAINS POSSIBLE

After falling for two straight weeks, the nation’s average price of gasoline has inched up, rising 0.6 cents from a week ago to $3.04 per gallon yesterday according to GasBuddy data compiled from more than 12 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average is down 1.4 cents from a month ago and 23.9 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. The national average price of diesel has fallen 2.0 cents in the last week and stands at $3.89 per gallon— 69 cents lower than one year ago.

“Last week was a bit of a mixed bag for gasoline prices, with prices increasing early on but falling again in recent days as the situation in the Red Sea continues to drive market volatility,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “While last week saw the U.S. attacking Houthi militants engaged in attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, oil prices jumped, but then promptly fell as economic concerns with weak demand sapped the upward move after the U.S. and allies attacked Houthi rebels. Gasoline inventories also saw another large rise, putting some downward pressure on gas prices, and leaving an opportunity for the national average to potentially briefly fall below $3 per gallon. We’ll have to see if the stars finally align for such a move.”

OIL PRICES
After rising in a significant way late last week as the U.S. and its allies attacked Houthi rebels, risking escalating the situation in the Middle East, oil prices have again lost their way. In early trade on the holiday, West Texas Intermediate crude oil was down 99 cents to $71.69 per barrel, similar to last Monday’s $71.40 per barrel fetch. Brent crude oil was also in the red early on Monday, also down 99 cents to $77.30 per barrel, just above last Monday’s $76.38 per barrel start. While violence in the Middle East has continued to roil markets, rallies have not been able to maintain their strength, with oil prices sagging on slower economic prospects, primarily led by concerns over China’s flailing economy.

OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS
Last week’s report from the Energy Information Administration showed an increase in the major categories, with oil inventories rising 1.3 million barrels, with the SPR also tacking on a 600,000 barrel build. Domestic crude oil production remained unchanged at 13.2 million barrels per day. Gasoline inventories surged 8 million barrels and now stand over 18 million barrels higher than a year ago, while distillate inventories also surged 6.5 million barrels and are now just 4% below the five-year average for this time of year. Implied gasoline demand, a proxy for retail consumption, rose to 8.33 million barrels per day, but gasoline demand remains seasonally weak. Refinery utilization fell 0.6 percentage points to 92.9%, a number that will likely continue to come under pressure as refinery maintenance season eventually starts and weak demand leads to refinery run cuts.

FUEL DEMAND
According to GasBuddy demand data driven by its Pay with GasBuddy™ fuel card, U.S. retail gasoline demand saw an increase of 1.6% for the week ending January 14 (Sun-Sat), as demand inched up ahead of winter weather. Broken down by PADD region, demand fell 1.3% in PADD 1, fell 1.3% in PADD 2, rose 11.2% in PADD 3, rose 3.7% in PADD 4, and rose 6.7% in PADD 5. GasBuddy models U.S. gasoline demand at 8.29 million barrels per day.

GAS PRICE TRENDS
The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $2.99 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $2.89, $2.79, $2.69, and $3.09 rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. gas price is $2.89 per gallon, unchanged from last week and about 15 cents lower than the national average.
The top 10% of stations in the country average $4.36 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.47 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average prices: Oklahoma ($2.48), Arkansas ($2.57), and Colorado ($2.62).
The states with the highest average prices: Hawaii ($4.60), California ($4.52), and Washington ($3.98).

DIESEL PRICE TRENDS
The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $3.99 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $3.79, $3.89, $3.69, and $3.59 rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. diesel price is $3.79 per gallon, unchanged from last week and about 10 cents lower than the national average for diesel.
Diesel prices at the top 10% of stations in the country average $5.01 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $3.24 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average diesel prices: Oklahoma ($3.39), Texas ($3.41), and Colorado ($3.50).
The states with the highest average diesel prices: Hawaii ($5.56), California ($5.30), and Washington ($4.75).