NATIONAL AVERAGE JUMPS DOUBLE DIGITS AS SUMMER BLEND SWITCH BEGINS

After falling last week, the nation’s average price of gasoline has returned to a rise, climbing 10.0 cents from a week ago to $3.34 per gallon yesterday according to GasBuddy® data compiled from more than 12 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average is up 22.0 cents from a month ago but 3.2 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. The national average price of diesel has fallen 2.7 cents in the last week and stands at $4.03 per gallon—33 cents lower than one year ago.

“A majority of the nation’s 50 states have seen gasoline prices rise, with the national average posting a gain for the second straight week, a trend that is hardly surprising for this time of year, and will likely continue as the entire nation has now made the first step toward summer gasoline,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “The pinch at the pump has been manageable for now, with prices about 30 cents higher than mid-January, but that will likely change as we enter the madness we tend to see in March with refinery maintenance hitting its peak, impacting how much gasoline can be produced as we make the changeover to the summer blends. This always crimps supply, leading to further gas price increases.”

OIL PRICES

After a weekend that saw Saudi Arabia announce an extension of their 1 million barrel per day production cut, oil prices were seeing slight losses, but remained near the highest level since November. In addition, OPEC+ members agreed to extend their own production cuts into the second quarter of 2024. On top of that, Russia announced it would also curb output by a half million barrels per day, but the market had been pricing in much of the news ahead of time. In early Monday trade, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was down 38 cents to $79.59 per barrel, up over $3 from last week’s $76.07 per barrel start. Brent crude was down 24 cents in early trade to $83.31 per barrel, a $2 rise from last week’s $81.19 per barrel start. For now, record U.S. oil production has remained much of why OPEC is continuing to cut oil production to drive prices higher.

OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS

Last week’s report from the Energy Information Administration showed a 4.2-million-barrel rise in U.S. oil inventories, which stand some 2% below the five-year average, while the SPR rose another 700,000 barrels. Domestic crude oil production was unchanged at 13.3 million barrels per day, 1 million higher than a year ago. Gasoline inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels as refiners continued to purge winter-spec barrels, while distillate inventories fell by 500,000 barrels. Implied gasoline demand, EIA’s proxy for retail demand, rose 267,000 bpd to 8.47 million, just under GasBuddy’s previous measurement of 8.57 million. Refinery utilization inched up 0.9 percentage points to 81.5% as refinery maintenance season continues.

FUEL DEMAND

According to GasBuddy demand data driven by its Pay with GasBuddy™ fuel card, U.S. retail gasoline demand saw a decrease of 0.3% for the week ending March 3 (Sun-Sat). Broken down by PADD region, demand fell 0.5% in PADD 1, rose 0.2% in PADD 2, fell 2.5% in PADD 3, rose 1.9% in PADD 4, and rose 1.0% in PADD 5. GasBuddy models U.S. gasoline demand at 8.553 million barrels per day.

GAS PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $3.29 per gallon, up 30 cents from last week, followed by $2.99, $3.49, $3.09, and $3.19 rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. gas price is $3.22 per gallon, up 9 cents from last week and about 12 cents lower than the national average.
The top 10% of stations in the country average $4.58 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.77 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average prices: Texas ($2.80), Oklahoma ($2.80), Mississippi ($2.82).
The states with the highest average prices: California ($4.79), Hawaii ($4.66), and Washington ($4.08).

DIESEL PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $3.99 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $3.89, $3.79, $4.09, and $3.69 rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. diesel price is $3.95 per gallon, down 4 cents from last week and about 8 cents lower than the national average for diesel.
Diesel prices at the top 10% of stations in the country average $5.08 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $3.46 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average diesel prices: Oklahoma ($3.54), Texas ($3.64), and Mississippi ($3.66).
The states with the highest average diesel prices: Hawaii ($5.66), California ($5.38), and Washington ($4.63).