National Average Rises as California Sees Refinery Outages Cause Spikes

For the second straight week, the nation’s average price of gasoline has risen, climbing 4.6 cents from a week ago to $3.83 per gallon yesterday according to GasBuddy data compiled from more than 11 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country.

The national average is down 1 cent from a month ago but 19.9 cents per gallon higher than a year ago. The national average price of diesel has increased 9.9 cents in the last week and stands at $4.53 per gallon, 42.1 cents lower than one year ago.

“The national average rose slightly over the last week due to continued refinery challenges in the western U.S. that have pulled gas prices up considerably in some states, while some 1 in 5 states have seen average gasoline prices decline in the last week,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “With the transition back to cheaper winter gasoline now upon us in nearly every state, we should see prices eventually cooling back off. But if refinery issues continue to develop or linger, especially now that we’re entering maintenance season with less available capacity online, the expected decline could certainly be offset. In addition, with oil prices now above $91 for the first time in nearly a year, there remains some offset from the rising price of oil thanks to Saudi Arabia and Russia’s war on low oil prices, now in its third month.”

OIL PRICES

Against a backdrop of global supply that’s been dropping as Saudi Arabia and Russia wage war on low oil prices, oil markets continue to find support. In early Monday trade, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was up $1.03 per barrel to $91.80 per barrel, its highest level since November 2022, a $3 per barrel rise compared to last Monday’s $87.88 per barrel start. Brent crude oil was also solidly in the black in early trade, up 80 cents to $94.73 per barrel, up from last week’s $91.16 per barrel start. Brent and WTI have now rallied for three straight weeks and are on track for some of their largest quarterly increases since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with Citibank becoming the latest bank to predict that Brent crude oil could surpass the $100 per barrel mark. Saudi Arabia and Russia early this month unexpectedly extended production cuts not for just one month but through the rest of 2023 by 1.3 million barrels, pushing the market into a deficit in the final quarter of the year, which could bring additional price spikes into 2024, especially if global demand continues to recover.

OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS

Last week’s report from the Energy Information Administration showed a 4-million-barrel rise in U.S. oil inventories, which stand 2.1% below their year-ago level, while the SPR rose 300,000 barrels to 350.6 million barrels. Domestic crude oil production edged higher to 12.9 million barrels per day via EIA’s weekly estimates—800,000 barrels higher than a year ago. Gasoline inventories rose 5.6 million barrels, but stand 7.3 million lower than a year ago, and 2% below the five-year average for this time of year. Distillate inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels, and are up 6.5 million, or 5.6% compared to last year, but are down 13% vs. the five-year average for this time of year. Implied gasoline demand, a proxy for retail demand, plummeted 1.01 million barrels to just 8.31 million barrels per day, while refinery utilization rose 0.6 percentage points to 93.7% of capacity.

FUEL DEMAND

According to GasBuddy demand data driven by its Pay with GasBuddy™ fuel card, U.S. retail gasoline demand saw a decline of 1.5% last week (Sun-Sat), as demand continues to weaken seasonally while rising prices could also be playing a role. Broken down by PADD region, demand fell 1.0% in PADD 1, fell 1.9% in PADD 2, fell 2.6% in PADD 3, fell 4.7% in PADD 4, and rose 0.2% in PADD 5.

GAS PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $3.69 per gallon, up 10 cents from last week, followed by $3.59, $3.49, $3.39, and $3.89 rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. gas price is $3.69 per gallon, up 9 cents from last week and about 14 cents lower than the national average.
The top 10% of stations in the country average $5.39 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $3.25 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average prices: Mississippi ($3.28), Georgia ($3.34), and Louisiana ($3.37).
The states with the highest average prices: California ($5.58), Washington ($4.99), and Nevada ($4.78).

DIESEL PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $4.39 per gallon, up 10 cents from last week, followed by $4.29, $4.19, $4.49, and $4.69 rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. diesel price is $4.39 per gallon, up 10 cents from last week and about 14 cents lower than the national average for diesel.
Diesel prices at the top 10% of stations in the country average $5.84 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $3.95 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average diesel prices: Mississippi ($4.09), Texas ($4.14), and Louisiana ($4.17).
The states with the highest average diesel prices: California ($6.30), Hawaii ($5.61), and Washington ($5.65).