NATIONAL AVERAGE SEES LITTLE CHANGE, GASOLINE DEMAND PLUMMETS AFTER SURGING FOR JULY 4

The nation’s average price of gasoline has remained unchanged from a week ago, holding at $3.50 per gallon, according to GasBuddy data compiled from more than 11 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average price of diesel has fallen 1.3 cents in the last week and stands at $3.79 per gallon.

“After declining going into July 4, average gasoline prices have struggled to find much momentum in either direction as the price of crude oil has continued to bounce around, digesting offsetting news on both sides of the scale: supply, which OPEC+ continues to try and tighten, and weak global demand as monetary policy restrains growth,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “I don’t see much chance of a major break out of the tight range we’ve held since April, but there is rising risk for hurricane season and potential disruptions as major forecaster Colorado State University released its third forecast for the 2023 hurricane season, showing a sharp uptick in the number of expected major hurricanes.

Heading into the prime of summer gasoline demand, any disruptions, whether storms or unexpected outages and what might be a small challenge outside of the summer driving season, could be a larger problem, so there is some risk to gas prices going into the second half of summer.”

OIL PRICES

Oil markets have seen a rally over the last week after Saudi Arabia extended its 1-million-barrel-per-day production cut to August, and Russia joined in by slowing oil exports, boosting the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil to $73.25 per barrel in early Monday trade, down 61 cents in the session, but up from last Monday’s $71.42 per-barrel level. Brent crude was also slightly lower Monday morning, down 67 cents to 77.80. While oil has been pushing higher, it has run into the wall of rising interest rates as markets saw a healthy jobs figure from ADP last week as the reason central banks still have more work to do to slow growth, which will also slow down global demand. In addition, disappointing economic data from China continues to hold markets back.

OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS

Last week’s report from the Energy Information Administration showed a smaller 1.5-million-barrel decline in U.S. oil inventories, while the SPR fell by another 1.5 million barrels. Domestic crude oil production rebounded to 12.4 million barrels per day, while gasoline inventories fell 2.5 million barrels. Distillate inventories fell by a million barrels and stand slightly higher than last year. Implied gasoline demand, a proxy for retail demand, unsurprisingly jumped to 9.6 million barrels as motorists hit the road for July 4. It was the best print since last summer, and 293,000 barrels per day higher than last week. Refinery utilization fell by 1.1 percentage points to 91.1% as refiners in the Gulf struggled with high heat and lower yields.

FUEL DEMAND

According to GasBuddy demand data driven by its Pay with GasBuddy™ fuel card, U.S. retail gasoline demand saw an 8.6% drop last week (Sun-Sat) as the July 4 holiday closed and motorists returned from their holiday plans. Broken down by PADD region, demand fell 9.4% in PADD 1, fell 7.6% in PADD 2, fell 10.5% in PADD 3, fell 8.1% in PADD 4, and fell 5.8% in PADD 5.

GAS PRICE TRENDS
The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $3.29 per gallon, up 10 cents from last week, followed by $3.49, $3.19, $3.39, and $3.09 rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. gas price is $3.39 per gallon, unchanged from last week and about 11 cents lower than the national average.
The top 10% of stations in the country average $4.79 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.92 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average prices: Mississippi ($2.94), Louisiana ($3.03), and Alabama ($3.06).
The states with the highest average prices: Washington ($4.91), California ($4.82), and Hawaii ($4.65).

DIESEL PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $3.59 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $3.59, $3.49, $3.99, and $3.79 rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. diesel price is $3.69 per gallon, down 10 cents from last week and about 10 cents lower than the national average for diesel.
Diesel prices at the top 10% of stations in the country average $4.91 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $3.19 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average diesel prices: Texas ($3.32), Louisiana ($3.40), and Mississippi ($3.41).
The states with the highest average diesel prices: Hawaii ($5.67), California ($4.98), and Washington ($4.90).