National Average Sees Weekly Drop, But Oil Gets Fresh Surge Due to OPEC+
The nation’s average price of gasoline has returned to a decline, falling 3.8 cents compared to a week ago and stands at $3.09 per gallon, according to GasBuddy® data compiled from more than 12 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average is down 6.9 cents from a month ago and is 41.0 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. The national average price of diesel has decreased 2.4 cents in the last week and stands at $3.465 per gallon.
“The national average price of gasoline has continued its gentle descent over the last week, with the most notable declines seen in the Great Lakes region, where a minor refinery issue was resolved, sending wholesale gas prices lower,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “We’re also beginning to see prices retreat in California, a trend that should soon extend across much of the West Coast as additional gasoline shipments from Asia help offset recent refinery disruptions. While gasoline inventories remain somewhat tight heading into the summer, I’m optimistic that increased refinery output could pave the way for further price declines. That said, any unexpected outages could still cause short-term price bumps.”
OIL PRICES
After OPEC talked about raising oil production in July by a higher-than-expected amount, oil prices saw some weakness, but the group stuck with the previously expected increase of 441,000 bpd, leaving oil prices to rally in Monday trade. “There were some concerns of a larger production increase by OPEC+ last week, so markets took the news positively. What’s interesting is that OPEC+ crude exports are largely flat in May vs April, suggesting effective addition was smaller than 411,000 bpd, and large parts of the increase were consumed domestically. Also, the physical market remains tight, suggesting for now it can absorb additional barrels,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodities analyst at UBS, in an email. In early Monday trade, WTI crude oil was jumping nearly 5%, gaining $2.85 per barrel to $63.64, up from last Tuesday’s $60.95 start. Brent was also seeing solid momentum, up over 4% or $2.66 per barrel to $65.44, up from last Tuesday’s $64.20 per barrel start.
OIL AND REFINED PRODUCT SUPPLIES
The EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending May 23, 2025, showed U.S. oil inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels, about 6% below the seasonal average for this time of year, while the SPR rose 800,000 barrels to 401.3 million. Gasoline inventories fell by 2.4 million barrels and stand 3% below the five-year seasonal average, while distillate inventories fell 0.7 million barrels and are about 17% below the five-year seasonal average. Refinery utilization rose 0.0 percentage points to 90.2%, while implied gasoline demand, EIA’s proxy for retail demand, rose 808,000 bpd to 9.452 million barrels per day.
GAS PRICE TRENDS
The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $2.99 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $2.89, $2.79, $3.09, and $2.69, rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. gas price is $2.95 per gallon, down 4 cents from last week and about 14 cents lower than the national average.
The top 10% of stations in the country average $4.52 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.52 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average prices: Mississippi ($2.63), Texas ($2.67), and Tennessee ($2.68).
The states with the highest average prices: California ($4.70), Hawaii ($4.42), and Washington ($4.34).
Biggest weekly changes: Indiana (-13.3¢), Ohio (-12.9¢), Michigan (-12.7¢), California (-7.3¢), Virginia (-6.5¢)
DIESEL PRICE TRENDS
The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $3.39 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $3.29, $3.49, $3.19, and $3.59, rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. diesel price is $3.35 per gallon, down 4 cents from last week and about 12 cents lower than the national average.
Diesel prices at the top 10% of stations in the country average $4.66 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.83 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average diesel prices: Texas ($2.97), Oklahoma ($3.08), and Mississippi ($3.09).
The states with the highest average diesel prices: Hawaii ($5.19), California ($5.00), and Washington ($4.62).
Biggest weekly changes: Hawaii (-7.6¢), South Dakoka (-6.5¢), Florida (-6.4¢), Utah (+5.6¢), Texas (-5.1¢)
Given the tight inventories and the potential for unexpected refinery outages, how do you see the balance between supply constraints and demand growth shaping gasoline and diesel prices over the next few months?