National Average Surprisingly Slips as Oil and Diesel Prices Advance

After rising last week, the nation’s average price of gasoline has returned to a decline, falling 1.1 cents compared to a week ago, and stands at $3.02 per gallon, according to GasBuddy® data compiled from more than 12 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average is up 0.9 cents from a month ago and is 3.2 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. The national average price of diesel has increased 3.7 cents in the last week and stands at $3.525 per gallon.

“It’s been a relatively quiet week for the national average price of gasoline, with little overall movement. However, colder weather has pushed diesel prices higher and could also impact gasoline prices if refiners face disruptions,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “While gas prices haven’t shifted significantly yet, oil prices have climbed to their highest level since October, driven by President Biden’s new sanctions on so-called dark vessels, which have slowed countries like Iran’s ability to sell oil. This could soon lead to more noticeable increases in gas prices. Seasonally weak demand may help soften the impact of any increases for now, but with refinery maintenance season just weeks away—when refiners typically reduce gasoline production—motorists should be prepared for the spring rally to kick off.”

OIL MARKETS

Oil prices fluctuated significantly last week, initially declining due to a stronger U.S. dollar and an unexpected build in U.S. inventories, which signaled potential demand weakness. However, oil surged later in the week after the U.S. imposed new sanctions targeting Russian oil producers and blacklisted 183 tankers delivering crude to China and India, raising concerns about global supply disruptions. Despite the recent gains, forecasts suggest ample supply including spare capacity along with weak demand, particularly from China, which could temper oil prices in 2025. The interplay of geopolitical developments, supply dynamics, and economic indicators continues to drive volatility in the oil market. In early Monday trade, WTI crude oil was up $1.47 per barrel to $78.04 per barrel, up nearly $4 from last Monday’s $74.11 per barrel start. Brent was also up $1.17 to $80.93 per barrel, up from last week’s $76.71 start.

OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS

Last week’s report from the EIA showed a decrease in crude oil inventories by about 1 million barrels, with domestic production at around 13.563 million barrels per day. However, there were significant increases in gasoline and distillate stocks, with gasoline rising by 6.3 million barrels and distillates by 6.1 million barrels. For motorists, this could potentially mean that while crude oil supply is tightening, there’s an abundance of refined products like gasoline, which might influence pump prices depending on regional demand and other market factors.

GAS PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $2.99 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $2.89, $2.79, $3.09, and $2.69 rounding out the top five most common prices.

The median U.S. gas price is $2.94 per gallon, down 3 cents from last week and about 8 cents lower than the national average.

The top 10% of stations in the country average $4.13 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.52 per gallon.

The states with the lowest average prices: Oklahoma ($2.53), Mississippi ($2.57), Kansas ($2.66).

The states with the highest average prices: Hawaii ($4.54), California ($4.32), and Washington ($3.82).

Biggest weekly changes: Ohio (-13.4¢), Indiana (-11.8¢), Michigan (-10.3¢), North Dakota (+7.7¢), Alaska (-4.6¢)

DIESEL PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $3.39 per gallon, down 10 cents from last week, followed by $3.69, $3.49, $3.59, and $3.29, rounding out the top five most common prices.

The median U.S. diesel price is $3.42 per gallon, up 3 cents from last week and about 10 cents lower than the national average.

Diesel prices at the top 10% of stations in the country average $4.36 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.97 per gallon.

The states with the lowest average diesel prices: Oklahoma ($3.06), Texas ($3.12), and Mississippi ($3.14).

The states with the highest average diesel prices: Hawaii ($5.26), California ($4.86), and Washington ($4.23).

Biggest weekly changes: Delaware (+13.3¢), Florida (+12.9¢), Maryland (+9.6¢), New Jersey (+9.4¢), California (+7.2¢).