National Average Ticks Higher, Remaining Slightly Below Year-Ago Level

For the second straight week, the nation’s average price of gasoline has increased, climbing 6.2 cents from a week ago to $3.40 per gallon today according to GasBuddy® data compiled from more than 12 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average is up 23.0 cents from a month ago and 4.5 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. The national average price of diesel has fallen 1.3 cents in the last week and stands at $4.02 per gallon—30 cents lower than one year ago.

“The national average price of gasoline has seen a continued but measured rise compared to last week, but the pace of increases has slowed slightly in the last few days. With government data showing a rise in refinery utilization last week, there may be some good news on the horizon for drivers,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “Much of the seasonal rise that happens this time of year is a culmination of refinery maintenance, the switch to summer gasoline, and rising demand. If refineries continue to boost output of products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, it could mean earlier-than-expected relief. However, the changeover is still in process, so while we’ll likely see the continuation of upward pressure on prices, improvement in output could slow that pressure down some.”

OIL PRICES

Oil markets have seen downward pressure over the past few trading sessions while holding near the high side of the range recently seen, as weaker demand in China has brought some selling back into the market. China’s import levels of crude were up in the first two months of the year but were weaker than late 2023 imports, and with China aiming for 5% growth targets in 2024, markets seem disappointed with the oil demand outlook. In early trade, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was down 26 cents to $77.75 per barrel, just over $2 lower than last Monday’s $79.59 per barrel level. Brent crude was also down 27 cents in early trade to $81.81 per barrel, down slightly less than $2 from last Monday’s $83.31 per barrel level.

OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS

Last week’s report from the Energy Information Administration showed a 1.4 million barrel rise in crude oil inventories, which stand 1% below the five-year average for this time of year, while the SPR saw another 700,000 barrel rise to 361.0 million barrels, 2.9% below the year-ago level. Domestic crude oil production fell 100,000 bpd to 13.2 million barrels as production in the lower 48 fell 100,000 bpd. Gasoline inventories continued their seasonal decline, falling 4.5 million barrels, which is nearly 1% above year-ago levels but 2% below the five-year average for this time of year. Distillate inventories fell by 4.1 million barrels and are down 10% from the five-year average range for this time of year. Implied gasoline demand, EIA’s proxy for retail demand, surged 547,000 bpd to 9.01 million, likely a number as stations fill their vast underground storage tanks as the spring rally in prices pushes them to do so. Refinery utilization jumped 3.4 percentage points to 84.9%.

FUEL DEMAND

According to GasBuddy demand data driven by its Pay with GasBuddy™ fuel card, U.S. retail gasoline demand saw a decrease of 2.4% for the week ending March 10 (Sun-Sat). Broken down by PADD region, demand fell 3.5% in PADD 1, fell 2.6% in PADD 2, rose 0.1% in PADD 3, fell 1.4% in PADD 4, and fell 2.5% in PADD 5. GasBuddy models U.S. gasoline demand at 8.361 million barrels per day.

GAS PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $3.29 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $3.19, $3.09, $3.39, and $2.99 rounding out the top five most common prices.
The states with the lowest average prices: Texas ($2.89), Mississippi ($2.92), Colorado ($2.96).
The states with the highest average prices: California ($4.87), Hawaii ($4.63), and Washington ($4.18).

DIESEL PRICE TRENDS

The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $3.99 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $3.89, $3.79, $3.69, and $4.19 rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. diesel price is $3.93 per gallon, down 2 cents from last week and about 9 cents lower than the national average for diesel.
Diesel prices at the top 10% of stations in the country average $5.04 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $3.44 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average diesel prices: Oklahoma ($3.57), Texas ($3.62), and Mississippi ($3.64).
The states with the highest average diesel prices: Hawaii ($5.52), California ($5.36), and Washington ($4.61).