For the first time in 8 weeks, the national average price of gasoline edged higher, rising 1.2 cents compared to a week ago, and stands at $3.16 per gallon today, according to GasBuddy® data compiled from more than 12 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average is down 18.8 cents from a month ago and is 67.4 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. The national average price of diesel has fallen 2.1 cents in the last week and stands at $3.55 per gallon.
“With oil prices jumping after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a larger-than-expected half percent, we’ve seen some states where gas prices have inched back up, while others have continued to decline. Most of these increases should be temporary with declines returning in the days and weeks ahead,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “In addition, for California and areas of Nevada and western Arizona, areas that had been left out of the recent drops, refinery issues are improving and gas prices should start moving lower. While the future looks good for gas prices to continue trending lower for most in the weeks ahead, oil’s jump may mute the downside potential just a bit — for now.”
OIL MARKETS
With Middle East tensions building and optimism over potential growth in the U.S. economy after the Fed’s larger-than-expected 50 basis point cut last week, oil prices have bounced back above the $70 per barrel level, rising to $71.12 in early Monday trade, up 12 cents, and nearly $2 higher than last week’s $69.52 per barrel start. Brent crude oil was also slightly higher, rising 2 cents to $74.51 per barrel, also up from last week’s $72.36 per barrel start. While the Chinese economy has been weak and weighs negatively on oil markets, the global economy and declining interest rates have given some optimism to oil markets that have struggled to rally as of late.
OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS
Last week’s report from the EIA showed a 1.6 million barrel decline in oil inventories, while the SPR rose 700,000 barrels, and domestic production fell to 13.2 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by a meager 100,000 barrels, while distillate inventories also tacked on 100,000 barrels. Implied gasoline demand, EIA’s proxy for retail consumption, rose 298,000 barrels to 8.78 million per day, while refinery utilization fell 0.7 percentage points, likely as refinery maintenance ramps up. In total, U.S. oil stockpiles stand up 14 million barrels versus a year ago.
FUEL DEMAND
According to GasBuddy demand data driven by its Pay with GasBuddy™ fuel card, U.S. retail gasoline demand saw a fall of 2.2% for the week ending September 21 (Sun-Sat). Broken down by PADD region, demand fell 1.6% in PADD 1, fell 3.4% in PADD 2, fell 3.3% in PADD 3, rose 0.8% in PADD 4, and rose 0.5% in PADD 5. GasBuddy models U.S. gasoline demand at 8.65 million barrels per day.
GAS PRICE TRENDS
The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $2.99 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $3.09, $3.19, $2.79, and $2.89 rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. gas price is $3.05 per gallon, up 4 cents from last week and about 11 cents lower than the national average.
The top 10% of stations in the country average $4.43 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.59 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average prices: Mississippi ($2.66), Oklahoma ($2.68), Louisiana ($2.70).
The states with the highest average prices: California ($4.67), Hawaii ($4.54), and Washington ($4.05).
Biggest weekly changes: Ohio (+19.1¢), Michigan (+13.1¢), Indiana (+11.3¢), New Hampshire (-8.1¢), Utah (-8.0¢)
DIESEL PRICE TRENDS
The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $3.39 per gallon, down 10 cents from last week, followed by $3.49, $3.59, $3.29, and $3.19 rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. diesel price is $3.44 per gallon, down 5 cents from last week and about 11 cents lower than the national average for diesel.
Diesel prices at the top 10% of stations in the country average $4.47 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.89 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average diesel prices: Texas ($3.03), Oklahoma ($3.15), and Mississippi ($3.17).
The states with the highest average diesel prices: Hawaii ($5.34), California ($4.88), and Washington ($4.35).
Biggest weekly changes: Connecticut (-6.5¢), Rhode Island (-5.8¢), Maine (-5.7¢), Utah (-5.7¢), Vermont (-5.3¢).
Hello, Patrick. Seeing an unusual trend in the western half of the Denver metro. Gasoline prices at many stations jumped before last weeks crude rally but significant deltas from one station to the next can be found. Not aware of any regional midstream issues. Also, deltas between RUL and diesel have shrunk to where diesel for sale at less per gallon than gasoline can be found. I find that to be fairly unusual.
Best,
Dan Larson, danlarson@larson-comms.com