Oil Surges as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Deepens, Gasoline and Diesel Prices Accelerate Nationwide
Fuel prices across the United States are continuing to surge as the global oil market reacts to escalating disruptions tied to the ongoing crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
As of 8 a.m. ET, the national average price of gasoline has climbed to $3.306 per gallon, the highest level since August 31, 2024. Just a week ago, the national average stood at $2.982 per gallon, meaning prices have surged 32.4 cents per gallon in only seven days.
Diesel prices are rising even faster. The national average for diesel has reached $4.264 per gallon, the highest level since November 21, 2023. A week ago, diesel averaged $3.752 per gallon, marking a 51.2-cent jump in just one week — one of the most dramatic weekly increases seen in years.
Meanwhile, oil markets continue to push higher. WTI crude oil climbed another $5.49 per barrel to $86.50, as traders grapple with the growing reality that a massive portion of global oil supply remains effectively stranded.
The Core Issue: Oil That Can’t Reach the Market
At the center of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway responsible for moving roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day, or about one-fifth of global supply.
While the Strait has not been formally closed, the combination of military threats, attacks, and insurance risks has effectively created a de facto shutdown. Many shipping companies and tanker operators are avoiding the region entirely.
That means millions of barrels of oil that would normally flow to global markets simply aren’t reaching buyers.
Every additional day the disruption continues compounds the problem. Even if the Strait reopened immediately, the market would still face the challenge of catching up on days’ worth of missing shipments — an increasingly difficult task as the backlog grows.
Oil Producers Warn of Severe Market Impacts
Officials in Qatar have warned that oil prices could potentially surge to $150 per barrel if the situation persists.
The concern is not simply lost supply, but the growing risk that oil producers could soon face the unusual situation of having nowhere to send the oil they produce. If exports remain constrained long enough, some producers may eventually be forced to slow or halt production.
That scenario would tighten the global oil market even further.
Gasoline Prices Jumping Across Much of the Country
The impact on U.S. gasoline prices is already widespread.
The states seeing the largest weekly increases include:
Indiana: +44.3¢
West Virginia: +43.9¢
Ohio: +42.5¢
Louisiana: +42.3¢
Florida: +41.5¢
Oklahoma: +40.9¢
Georgia: +40.1¢
Texas: +39.6¢
Maryland: +38.7¢
Minnesota: +38.4¢
These sharp increases reflect how quickly retail prices respond when wholesale markets move higher and supply concerns escalate.
Given current market conditions, the national average price of gasoline could climb toward $3.50 to $3.70 per gallon in the coming days if oil continues rising and supply disruptions persist.
Seasonal factors could add additional pressure later this month as another phase of the transition to summer gasoline blends begins in mid-March.
Diesel Prices Are Climbing Even Faster
Diesel prices are experiencing an even more dramatic surge.
Over the past week, the largest diesel price increases have been seen in:
Texas: +67.4¢
Iowa: +66.5¢
West Virginia: +64.4¢
North Carolina: +63.1¢
New Mexico: +61.6¢
Arizona: +61.0¢
Georgia: +60.9¢
Louisiana: +58.8¢
Ohio: +58.4¢
Mississippi: +58.2¢
Diesel markets often react even more aggressively during supply disruptions because diesel fuels freight transportation, manufacturing, agriculture, and global shipping. When crude supply is threatened, diesel markets can tighten rapidly.
Price Increases Likely to Continue
Earlier in the week there was some hope that gasoline price increases might begin slowing by the weekend. That outlook has now changed.
With oil continuing to climb and shipping through the Strait still disrupted, fuel prices are likely to keep rising through the weekend.
Each day that the Strait remains effectively closed makes it exponentially harder for global markets to recover the roughly 20 million barrels per day normally flowing through the corridor.
Restoring Confidence in Hormuz Is Critical
Ultimately, stabilizing oil and fuel prices depends on restoring confidence that tankers can once again safely transit the Strait of Hormuz.
Markets do not necessarily need a perfect geopolitical resolution — but they do need assurance that the world’s most important oil shipping lane is open and secure.
Until that confidence returns, oil prices will likely remain elevated and fuel prices could continue climbing across the United States.