The Real State of Fuel Prices: What the President Won’t Tell You Tonight
Where Gasoline Prices Stand Right Now
As of this moment, the national average price of gasoline is $2.946 per gallon (GasBuddy). Prices fluctuate throughout the day, but this reflects the current national snapshot. (All prices following are quoted in $/gal)
For context:
One week ago: $2.911
One month ago: $2.866
One year ago: $3.102
Gasoline is currently 15.6 cents per gallon lower than a year ago, though prices have edged higher in recent weeks.
The recent uptick reflects the early stages of seasonal refinery maintenance, the upcoming transition to summer gasoline blends, and rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran that have added a modest risk premium to oil markets. Energy markets often respond to geopolitical uncertainty before any physical supply disruption occurs.
Looking Beyond the National Average: How Prices Are Distributed
The national average tells only part of the story. To better understand what drivers are paying, it helps to look at three different statistical measures: mean, median, and mode.
Mean (Average): The national average — calculated by adding all station prices together and dividing by the number of stations.
Median: The midpoint price — half of stations charge more, half charge less.
Mode: The most common price being charged at stations nationwide.
Today:
Mean (national average): $2.946
Median price: $2.79
Most common price (mode): $2.69
The next most common price points are:
$2.79, $2.99, $2.89, and $2.59.
Because the median and most common prices are both below the national average, it suggests higher-priced states — particularly California — are pulling the overall average upward. In practical terms, most Americans are paying less than the headline national figure.
The Spread Between Cheap and Expensive Markets
Price dispersion remains wide:
The cheapest 10% of stations are averaging $2.31 per gallon.
The most expensive 10% of stations are averaging $4.56 per gallon.
That’s a spread of more than $2 per gallon between the lowest and highest pricing tiers nationwide — reflecting differences in taxes, environmental regulations, supply logistics, and local competition.
Regular vs. Premium Gasoline: A Growing Gap
Another often-overlooked metric is the spread between regular and premium gasoline.
Today:
Regular: $2.946
Premium: $3.763
That’s a difference of 81.7 cents per gallon.
For comparison, on the final day of President Trump’s first term:
Regular: $2.408
Premium: $2.981
The spread at that time was 57.3 cents per gallon.
The premium spread has widened significantly. This reflects changes in refining economics, octane production costs, and retail pricing strategies — not simply crude oil prices.
On $1.85 Gasoline in Iowa
There may be references to gasoline reaching $1.85 per gallon in Iowa earlier this year. That did occur briefly for a couple of weeks in early January during soft seasonal demand and localized competition.
Prices in Iowa have since risen.
At this moment, only 8 out of roughly 150,000 gas stations nationwide are selling gasoline below $2 per gallon. Those eight stations include four in Texas, one in Oklahoma, and three in Kansas.
These are isolated outliers — not reflective of national pricing trends.
Current statewide extremes:
Lowest statewide average: Oklahoma — $2.333
Highest statewide average: California — $4.596
The Colorado Price War: Why Extreme Lows Don’t Tell the Full Story
Over the past few months, some of the lowest prices in the country occurred in Colorado, where stations in Colorado Springs and Aurora engaged in an extended price war.
For slightly more than a month, prices at select stations fell well below $2 per gallon, with some dropping into the $1.60s.
These were highly localized competitive events. In many cases, stations were likely operating at razor-thin margins — or potentially even selling fuel at a loss — to attract customers and undercut nearby competitors.
While attention-grabbing, these prices were not representative of national market fundamentals.
The Other Extreme: $7 Gas and Airport Pricing
Just as sub-$2 gasoline represents an extreme low, viral images of $7 per gallon gasoline in Los Angeles represent the other end of the spectrum.
Yes, stations charging $7 per gallon do exist — typically in isolated areas with limited competition or in high-cost regions. Similarly, stations located near major airports — including near Orlando International Airport — are currently charging well over $5 per gallon, often far above nearby neighborhood averages.
These locations tend to operate under unique market conditions:
High tourist or transient traffic
Limited immediate competition
Convenience-driven purchasing
Premium real estate costs
Outside of declared emergencies, most states allow retailers broad flexibility in pricing. Extremely high prices do not automatically imply illegal activity. In many cases, stations simply choose to price less competitively, particularly when they serve captive or convenience-focused customers.
Importantly, these stations are not representative of broader market conditions — just as the Colorado price war and brief $1.60s gasoline were not representative of national fundamentals.
States like California and Florida illustrate that pricing extremes are rarely explained by a single factor. Taxes, regulations, competition levels, location, consumer behavior, and logistics all play a role.
In other words, it is not difficult to find outliers at either extreme. But neither the lowest nor the highest prices tell the full story of the national fuel market.
The Oil Market Backdrop
Crude oil makes up roughly 50–60% of the price of gasoline, making global oil markets the primary driver of pump prices.
Current benchmarks:
WTI crude oil: $66.63 per barrel
Brent crude oil: $71.84 per barrel
Geopolitical developments — including tensions involving Iran — can influence oil prices quickly. Even without a physical supply disruption, markets often price in risk.
U.S. Oil Production: A Longer-Term View
U.S. crude oil production is currently estimated at 13.735 million barrels per day (EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report) — near record highs.
For context:
January 2025: ~13.140 million barrels per day
December 2024: ~13.437 million barrels per day
Production has continued to climb into 2026, though the pace remains measured.
Looking further back during Trump’s first term:
Production peaked at 12.998 million barrels per day in December 2019
It then fell sharply to 11.156 million barrels per day by January 2021, largely due to pandemic-driven demand destruction
During much of President Biden’s first term, despite policy debates surrounding the oil industry, U.S. oil production rebounded significantly — rising from 11.156 million barrels per day in January 2021 to 13.437 million barrels per day by the end of 2024.
In other words, production growth has occurred across administrations, largely in response to market conditions rather than rhetoric alone.
Why Production Doesn’t Move Instantly
While President Trump has called for increased drilling, oil production does not respond immediately to political messaging.
Several realities influence output:
Oil prices have declined in 2025, which has helped lower gasoline prices.
Lower oil prices reduce incentives for producers to aggressively expand drilling.
Public oil companies remain focused on capital discipline and shareholder returns.
Infrastructure, labor availability, and permitting timelines all matter.
When oil prices fall, producers often slow growth plans — even if policymakers encourage expansion.
The Role of OPEC
OPEC and its allies remain a major influence on global oil prices.
Recent increases in OPEC production have contributed to downward pressure on oil prices. While that has helped keep gasoline prices relatively stable, it also reduces the urgency — and profitability — for U.S. producers to rapidly expand output.
Oil is a global market. Domestic production decisions operate within that broader framework.
Refining & Gasoline Supply Conditions
Refinery utilization: 91.0% (EIA)
Total gasoline inventories: 255.8 million barrels
247.9 million one year ago
247.0 million two years ago
Inventories are roughly 8 million barrels higher than a year ago, suggesting national supply is not tight.
However, spring refinery maintenance season is underway. As refiners take units offline and transition to more expensive summer gasoline blends, upward pressure on prices is typical this time of year.
Diesel Prices: The Fuel That Powers the Economy
While gasoline gets the headlines, diesel fuels the economy — powering trucking, rail, construction, agriculture, and industrial activity.
The national average diesel price today stands at $3.722 per gallon.
For comparison:
Inauguration Day: $3.626
One week ago: $3.649
One month ago: $3.543
One year ago: $3.648
Diesel prices are now 9.6 cents higher than on Inauguration Day and sit near their highest level since July 2024.
State extremes:
Lowest statewide diesel average: Louisiana — $3.204
Highest statewide diesel average: Hawaii — $5.209
Diesel Price Distribution
Most common diesel price (mode): $3.59
Followed by: $3.69, $3.49, $3.79, $3.99
Median diesel price: $3.63
Cheapest 10% of stations: $3.06
Most expensive 10% of stations: $4.79
As with gasoline, diesel pricing varies significantly by region.
Why Diesel Has Been Rising
Cold Weather Demand
Subfreezing temperatures in late January east of the Rockies increased demand for distillate fuels, including heating oil.
Refinery Disruptions
Low-level refinery outages during extreme cold reduced output during peak demand.
Tighter Inventory Cushion
Distillate inventories currently stand at 120.1 million barrels, slightly above last year’s level but 5% below the five-year average (EIA).
This tighter cushion makes diesel more sensitive to demand spikes.
Because diesel is embedded in freight and supply chains, sustained increases can ripple through the broader economy.
What the 2026 Outlook Projected
In January, GasBuddy projected the 2026 national average gasoline price at $2.97 per gallon (GasBuddy 2026 Fuel Price Outlook).
The outlook anticipated:
A mild spring peak into the low $3.20 range
A steady second-half decline
A December average near $2.80
Average household gasoline spending around $2,083
So far, pricing remains broadly consistent with that seasonal framework, though geopolitical developments could introduce short-term volatility.
What a President Can — and Cannot — Control
A President can:
Authorize SPR releases (temporary impact)
Influence regulatory and leasing policy
Waive fuel specifications during emergencies
A President cannot:
Set global oil prices
Instantly increase refining capacity
Override OPEC production decisions
Eliminate seasonal fuel formulation changes overnight
Fuel markets respond primarily to global crude oil and refining fundamentals — not short-term political rhetoric.
Bottom Line Ahead of the Speech
Gasoline is lower than a year ago but rising seasonally.
Most Americans are paying below the national average.
Sub-$2 gasoline is extremely rare nationally. You’d have to randomly pick nearly 19,000 gas stations before you’d expect to find one selling below $2.
Colorado and Iowa lows were localized price wars — not structural shifts. At the peak, GasBuddy counted about 1% of all stations on January 5th below $2.
Diesel has risen since inauguration and remains firm due to winter demand and tighter inventories.
Spring refinery maintenance and geopolitical escalation are the key near-term risks.
As always, the fundamentals — not the rhetoric — will determine where prices go next.
Thanks for the explanation of gas and diesel prices. I hope more citizens will read your information to understand how it all works with crude oil.