WEST COAST, GREAT LAKES PUSH NATIONAL AVERAGE DOWN AGAIN
For the second straight week, the nation’s average gas price has declined, falling 9.3 cents from a week ago to $3.77 per gallon today according to GasBuddy data compiled from more than 11 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average is up 10.2 cents from a month ago and 41.2 cents per gallon higher than a year ago. The national average price of diesel has risen 4.0 cents in the last week and stands at $5.30 per gallon.
“Average gas prices have declined for the second straight week with significant declines in the West and Great Lakes having an oversized effect on the drop in the national average,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “With oil prices struggling a bit after reaching $93 after OPEC+’s decision to cut production, many regions could see falling gas prices again this week as demand continues to decline seasonally, especially if more data points to a significant economic slowdown. While gasoline prices have seen a large drop, diesel prices have been somewhat mixed, with prices heading higher in the Northeast as inventories drop to extremely tight levels ahead of the heating oil season. Motorists are reminded that the decline in gasoline prices is seasonal and should continue into the fall, and is unrelated to the coming election. Seasonality is king in driving prices, not the desires or hopes of politicians.”
OIL PRICES
Rising risk of economic downturn, weak Chinese imports and a stronger U.S. dollar were factors pushing oil prices deeper into the red Monday morning, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil down $1.96 per barrel in early trade, after starting the morning down 90 cents, accelerating on worries that demand could plummet with a drop in economic activity. WTI was down to $83.07 in morning trade, down over $1 from last Monday’s $84.82 per barrel start. Brent crude oil was down $1.76 in early trade to $91.74 per barrel, slightly higher than last week’s $91.11 per barrel start.
According to Baker Hughes, last week’s U.S. rig count was up by 2 rigs to 771, and was 229 rigs higher than a year ago. The Canadian rig count was down 6 rigs to 210, and was 46 rigs higher than a year ago.
OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS
According to last week’s data from the Energy Information Administration, U.S. commercial oil inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels, about 2% below the five year average for this time of year, while gasoline inventories fell 100,000 barrels to 7% below the five year average, while distillates rose 100,000 barrels, but remain 20% below the five year average for this time of year. Refineries operated at 89.5% of their capacity last week, with gasoline production rising to 9.4 million barrels last week, while distillate production fell to 5.0 million barrels last week. Implied gasoline demand, a proxy for retail demand, saw a 400,000 barrel rise to 8.68 million barrels. The SPR fell 3.6 million barrels to 405.1 million, 210 million below a year ago.
FUEL DEMAND
According to GasBuddy demand data driven by its Pay with GasBuddy card, U.S. retail gasoline demand rose last week (Sun-Sat) by 0.4%. Broken down by PADD region, demand rose 1.3% in PADD 1, rose 0.1% in PADD 2, rose 1.8% in PADD 3, fell 2.6% in PADD 4 and fell 1.6% in PADD 5.
GAS PRICE TRENDS
The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $3.49 per gallon, up 10 cents versus last week, followed by $3.39, $3.29, $3.59 and $3.69 rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. gas price is $3.54 per gallon, down 5 cents from last week and about 23 cents lower than the national average.
The top 10% of stations in the country average $5.56 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $3.05 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average prices: Georgia ($3.16), Texas ($3.17) and Mississippi ($3.26).
The states with the highest average prices: California ($5.68), Hawaii ($5.17) and Alaska ($5.08).